At resolution time of this market June 1, 2019 at 12:00 AM GMT-00:00, will democratic candidate Andrew Yang be polling at or above 4.0 percentage points, according to average of recent polling data?
Primary source shall be RCP Dem Nom 2020 page, located at the launch of this market at: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html.
Should RCP no longer display such a page, at any url, or is ambiguous, HuffPost Pollster Dem-Nom page shall be used. Shall that one not exist or be ambiguous, the most recent Morning consult poll for Dem-Nom, for all democratic primary voters, shall be the source of resolution. If that is also not producing a clear resolution, then reporters shall simply use common knowledge for whether Yang is polling above the threshold. If that too is ambiguous. then this market can resolve as invalid.
Any time Yang does not appear in a listing shall be considered ambiguous. Any average listed should match the survey numbers included without calculation errors. The final number should be taken as displayed, including any rounding they have done. We don't need snaps at the exact time of resolution; If we see that the page generally shows a consistent result the night before and the morning after resolution, that is fine.
All the above details don't really matter for bettors, just for reporters.
Augur Market ID